The Kuban State University and the Southern Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences are developing a new mechanical concept of seismic prediction, based on the analysis of possible mechanisms of lithospheric plate destruction in the contact zones or near fault boundaries. The differential factorization method and the block element method in combination with topological methods, made it possible to considerably simplify the algorithm for solving boundary problems for block structures. However, the development of a mathematical apparatus for studying the stress-strain state of lithospheric structures, taking into account the complex structure of the geological environment, requires the development of reliable methods for fault diagnostics (locating them and, if possible, determining the type of contact between lithospheric structures in the areas of their interface), and this problem can only be solved with the involvement of experimental methods. The paper describes one of the experimental methods, as well as the analysis of the geophysical data obtained as a result of using this method, which can serve to create a block structure model of the lithospheric plates in the region, taking into account the real conditions. The purpose of the experiments was to measure the inclination of the earth's surface and to detect patterns linking the inclination of individual sections of the earth's surface and changes in the structure of the earth's crust at distances exceeding the dimensions of individual blocks (i.e., in the far zone). The zones of the structure change were determined by the coordinates of seismic events at the block boundaries in the far zone from the location of the tiltmeter. The results of the study allow us to conclude that a decrease in the rate of change of the inclination of the Earth's surface in the far zone from seismic regions is accompanied by an increase in the likelihood of an earthquake in these areas. Thus, the tiltmeter, being in the far zone from the boundaries of the block, is able to react to the interactions between conjugated blocks and the change in the stress-strain state at its boundaries. On the basis of the revealed regularity, a model of the corresponding block structure of the Earth's crust for the region can be proposed, linking the presence of structural boundaries with the change in the inclination of the lithospheric plate section in the far zone.

В работе представлен подход к моделированию протекающих в коре Земли механических процессов, базирующийся на исследовании механизмов разрушения литосферных структур в зонах контакта или у границ разломов, теоретическую основу которого составляет метод блочного элемента. Описан один из экспериментальных методов (с применением наклономера) диагностики разломов. На основании выявленной закономерности может быть предложена модель соответствующей блочной структуры коры Земли для региона, связывающая наличие структурных границ с изменением наклона участка литосферной плиты в дальней зоне.