Monitoring of collisions of cosmic bodies with the Earth and the Moon in the system "Prognoz"
UDC
521.35;521.36;523.44Abstract
The "Prognoz" system is a head part of more general program complex which also includes calculation of the motion of a body in the atmosphere and creation of the scenario of catastrophic consequences of collision. The system determinates an orbit and a body size through observations and predicts the body motion by method of numerical integration. The probability of collision taking into account uncertainty of an orbit is estimated at the moments of passing by the Earth at the minimum distance and at penetration into the atmosphere to a certain level. At the time of atmosphere entrance the longitude and latitude of entry point, parameters of topocentric velocity and their dispersion are calculated. In case of a nominal orbit passing by the Earth, but with rather high probability of collision, on the Earth surface the strip of risk is determinated. In points of this strip falls of the body on the Earth are possible under some conditions. The problem of collisions with the Moon is also solved. The system provides formation of the demonstration table of last and forthcoming approaches to the Earth and to the Moon reflecting work of the system in real time.
Keywords:
asteroid-comet hazard, probability of collision, collision prognosis, asteroids, orbit elements, element errorsReferences
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Copyright (c) 2017 Вавилов Д.Е., Виноградова Т.А., Железнов Н.Б., Зайцев А.В., Кочетова О.М., Чернетенко Ю.А., Шор В.А.
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