The study of the applicability of the tool for fuzzy inductive reasoning to the problem of solar activity prediction

Abstract

The accumulation of large amounts of data in a variety of domains creates a demand for the development of the new tools for data processing and forecasting for decision support. The article is devoted to the developed by the authors tool for fuzzy inductive models construction. The tool is a cross-platform, standalone program which implements the fuzzy inductive reasoning methodology (FIR) for model creation. Authors explored the applicability of the tool for prediction nature of the 22-year cycle of solar activity. The input data for the inductive model construction were the Wolf number time series. Authors created the model with the tool; estimated the model against the control sample and got the forecast for the cycle's nature till 2030. The forecast matches the theory of age-long cycles of solar activity. Further study will be focused on elaboration of the constructed model with the final aim of obtaining, with the using of the tool, a set of inductive models for application in different domains.