An analysis of the trajectories set structure for the asteroid Apophis probable impact with the Earth in 2036

Authors

  • Guo P. Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation
  • Ivashkin V.V. Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation
  • Stikhno K.A. Bauman Moscow State Technical University, Moscow, Russian Federation

UDC

629.78

Abstract

A very close approach to the Earth on April 13, 2029 has been predicted for the hazardous asteroid 99942 Apophis. According to measurements of 2005, there was also a large enough theoretical possibility of an impact with the Earth in 2036. The main purpose of this study is to identify the entire set of these impact trajectories of Apophis, and to investigate their characteristics, in particular, the possible impact zone (impact Path of Risk) of the asteroid Apophis on the surface of the Earth in 2036. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we describe the method for determining the collision orbits of the asteroid Apophis. Based on the developed algorithm, several subsets of collision orbits have been constructed, for each of which the perigee distance of the trajectory is close to some fixed value, which varies from the lowest possible value for the impact, $\sim 2069$ km, to the radius of the Earth, $\sim 6375$ km. In the second part, we determine the impact points on the surface of the Earth and obtain the possible impact path of risk for the asteroid Apophis in 2036. The energy, time and geometry characteristics of the Apophis' collision trajectories and its impact area have been studied. The influence of precession and nutation on the determination of the coordinates of the impact points has been analyzed.

Keywords:

asteroid Apophis, orbit of Apophis, nominal initial data, errors of the initial data, collision with the Earth, collision trajectories, impact Path of Risk, geographical coordinates

Author info

  • Pen Guo

    магистр, аспирант Института прикладной математики им. М.В. Келдыша РАН, отдел "Механика космического полета и управление движением"

  • Vyacheslav V. Ivashkin

    д-р физ.-мат. наук, профессор, главный научный сотрудник Института прикладной математики им. М.В. Келдыша РАН, отдел "Механика космического полета и управление движением", профессор кафедры "Динамика и управление полетом ракет и космических аппаратов" Московского государственного технического университета им. Н.Э. Баумана

  • Kirill A. Stikhno

    ассистент кафедры теоретической механики Московского Государственного Технического Университета им. Н.Э. Баумана

References

  1. Ягудина Э.И., Шор В.А. Орбита АСЗ (99942) Apophis$=$2004 MN4 из анализа оптических и радарных наблюдений // Всероссийская конференция "Астероидно-кометная опасность-2005 (АКО-2005)", Санкт-Петербург, 3-7 октября 2005 г. Материалы конференции. СПб: ИПА РАН, 2005. С. 355-358. [Yagudina E.I., Shor V.A. Orbita ASZ (99942) Apophis = 2004 MN4 iz analiza opticheskikh i radarnykh nablyudeniy [Orbit NEA (99942) Apophis = 2004 MN4 from the analysis of optical and radar observations]. Vserossiyskaya konferentsiya "Asteroidno-kometnaya opasnost'-2005 (AKO-2005)" [All-Russian Conference "Asteroid-Comet Hazard 2005 (ACH-2005)"], St. Petersburg, October 3-7, 2005. St. Petersburg: IPA RAS, 2005, pp. 355-358. (In Russian)]
  2. Schweickart R., Chapman C., Durda D., Hut P., Bottke B., Nesvorny D. Threat Characterization: Trajectory Dynamics (White Paper 39). B612 Foundation. 2006. 9 p.
  3. Gennery D.B. Scenarios for dealing with Apophis // 2007 Planetary Defense Conference. G. Washington University, Washington, D.C. USA. March 5-8, 2007.
  4. Ivashkin V.V., Stikhno C.A. An Analysis of the Correction Problem for the Near-Earth Asteroid (99942) Apophis$=$2004 MN4. // 2007 Planetary Defense Conference, G. Washington University, Washington, D.C. USA. March 5-8, 2007.
  5. Соколов Л.Л., Кутеева Г.А. Возможные соударения астероида Апофис после уточнения его орбиты // Вестник СПБГУ. 2015. Сер. 1. Т. 2 (60). Вып. 1. С. 148-156. [Sokolov L.L., Kuteeva G.A. Vozmozhnyye soudareniya asteroida Apofis posle utochneniya yego orbity [Prediction of possible collisions of asteroid Apophis after refinement of its orbit]. Vestn. SPbSU, 2015, ser. 1, vol. 2 (60), no. 1, pp. 148-156. (In Russian)]
  6. Ивашкин В.В., Стихно К.А., Гуо П. О структуре множества вероятных траекторий соударения астероида Апофис с Землей в 2036 г. // ДАН. 2017. Т. 475, № 4. С. 389-394. DOI: 10.7868/S0869565217220078 [Ivashkin V.V., Stikhno C.A., Guo P. O strukture mnozhestva veroyatnykh trayektoriy soudareniya asteroida Apofis s Zemley v 2036 g. [On the structure of the set of probable Earth-impact trajectories for the asteroid Apophis in 2036]. Doklady Akademii Nauk [Doklady Physics], 2017, vol. 475, no. 4, pp. 389-394. DOI: 10.7868/S0869565217220078. (In Russian)]
  7. Kaplan G.H. The IAU Resolutions on Astronomical Reference Systems, Time Scales, and Earth Rotation Models. Explanation and Implementation. U.S. Naval Observatory. Circular no. 179. Washington, D.C. 20392. 2005. 118 p.
  8. Аксенов Е.П., Чазов В.В. Модель движения ИСЗ. Главная проблема. Основные алгоритмы. Воробьевы горы-Трехгорка-Звенигород. 2011. 188 с. [Aksenov E.P., Chazov V.V. Model' dvizheniya ISZ. Glavnaya problema. Osnovnyye algoritmy [Motion model of artificial satellites. The main problem. Basic algorithms]. Vorob'yevy gory-Trekhgorka-Zvenigorod. 2011, 188 p. (In Russian)]
  9. Крылов В.И. Координатно-временные преобразования в геодезии. М.: Изд-во МИИГАиК, 2014. 90 с. [Krylov V.I. Koordinatno-vremennyye preobrazovaniya v geodezii [Coordinate and temporal transformations in geodesy]. Moscow, MIIGAiK, 2014, 90 p. (In Russian)]
  10. Степаньянц В.А. Время и системы координат // Машиностроение. Энциклопедия. Т. IV-22. Ракетно-космическая техника. В 2 кн. Кн. 1. М.: Машиностроение, 2012. С. 15-26. [Stepanyants V.A. Vremya i sistemy koordinat [Time and coordinate systems]. Mashinostroyeniye. Entsiklopediya. Tom IV-22. Raketno-kosmicheskaya tekhnika [Mechanical engineering. Encyclopedia. Vol. IV-22. Rocket and space technology]. In 2 books. Book 1. Moscow, Mashinostroyeniye Publ., 2012, pp. 15-26. (In Russian)]
  11. Google My Maps. Apophis Path of Risk in 2036 with precession and nutation. Режим доступа: https://drive.google.com/open?id= 1VXX1dxJO2e6hn51FFTVf_wbk9gs&usp= sharing (дата обращения 25 ноября 2017 г.)
  12. GALSPACE. Малые тела Солнечной системы. Столкновение Земли с астероидом — проблема Апофиса. Режим доступа: http://galspace.spb.ru/index129.html (дата обращения 25 ноября 2017 г.) [GALSPACE. Malye tela Solnechnoy sistemy. Stolknovenie Zemli s asteroidom — problema Apofisa [Small bodies of the solar system. The collision of the Earth with the asteroid. Problem of Apophis]. URL: http://galspace.spb.ru/index129.html (access date 25 November, 2017) (In Russian)]
  13. Wikipedia. B612Foundation. Режим доступа: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B612_Foundation (дата обращения 25 ноября 2017 г.)

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Downloads

Issue

No. 4 (2017): Part 2

Pages

50-55

Section

Article

Dates

Submitted

October 1, 2017

Accepted

October 10, 2017

Published

December 28, 2017

How to Cite

[1]
Guo, P., Ivashkin, V.V., Stikhno, K.A., An analysis of the trajectories set structure for the asteroid Apophis probable impact with the Earth in 2036. Ecological Bulletin of Research Centers of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation, 2017, № 4, pp. 50–55.

License

Copyright (c) 2017 Гуо П., Ивашкин В.В., Стихно К.А.

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Similar Articles

1-10 of 1062

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.