Seismic hazard in the Northern Caucasus

Abstract

The applied method of allocation of the potential sources of the earthquakes, based on the complex geology-geophysical approach, has allowed receive a real estimations maximal possible magnitudes (Mmax) for expected earthquakes in region of the North-West Caucasus. Results of the carried out simulation were certified with the help of field paleoseismologycal investigations which have shown, that in zones of some active faults ancient strong earthquakes with magnitude up to 7.0 took place. The recurrence interval of such seismic events makes approximately 1300-1500 years. The recurrence plot for all diapason of registered magnitudes of earthquake with using of results of paleoseismological investigation was compiled.