An analysis of the trajectories set structure for the asteroid Apophis probable impact with the Earth in 2036

Authors

  • Guo P. Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Российская Федерация
  • Ivashkin V.V. Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Российская Федерация
  • Stikhno K.A. Bauman Moscow State Technical University, Moscow, Российская Федерация

UDC

629.78

Abstract

A very close approach to the Earth on April 13, 2029 has been predicted for the hazardous asteroid 99942 Apophis. According to measurements of 2005, there was also a large enough theoretical possibility of an impact with the Earth in 2036. The main purpose of this study is to identify the entire set of these impact trajectories of Apophis, and to investigate their characteristics, in particular, the possible impact zone (impact Path of Risk) of the asteroid Apophis on the surface of the Earth in 2036. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we describe the method for determining the collision orbits of the asteroid Apophis. Based on the developed algorithm, several subsets of collision orbits have been constructed, for each of which the perigee distance of the trajectory is close to some fixed value, which varies from the lowest possible value for the impact, $\sim 2069$ km, to the radius of the Earth, $\sim 6375$ km. In the second part, we determine the impact points on the surface of the Earth and obtain the possible impact path of risk for the asteroid Apophis in 2036. The energy, time and geometry characteristics of the Apophis' collision trajectories and its impact area have been studied. The influence of precession and nutation on the determination of the coordinates of the impact points has been analyzed.

Keywords:

asteroid Apophis, orbit of Apophis, nominal initial data, errors of the initial data, collision with the Earth, collision trajectories, impact Path of Risk, geographical coordinates

Author Infos

Pen Guo

магистр, аспирант Института прикладной математики им. М.В. Келдыша РАН, отдел "Механика космического полета и управление движением"

e-mail: 869792831@qq.com

Vyacheslav V. Ivashkin

д-р физ.-мат. наук, профессор, главный научный сотрудник Института прикладной математики им. М.В. Келдыша РАН, отдел "Механика космического полета и управление движением", профессор кафедры "Динамика и управление полетом ракет и космических аппаратов" Московского государственного технического университета им. Н.Э. Баумана

e-mail: Ivashkin@keldysh.ru

Kirill A. Stikhno

ассистент кафедры теоретической механики Московского Государственного Технического Университета им. Н.Э. Баумана

e-mail: fn2cyril@gmail.com

References

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Issue

2017. No. 4. Part 2

Pages

50-55

Submitted

2017-10-01

Published

2017-12-28

How to Cite

Guo P., Ivashkin V.V., Stikhno K.A. An analysis of the trajectories set structure for the asteroid Apophis probable impact with the Earth in 2036. Ecological Bulletin of Research Centers of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation, 2017, no. 4, pp. 50-55. (In Russian)

Copyright (c) 2017 Guo P., Ivashkin V.V., Stikhno K.A.

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.