Forecasting sign of a "start" earthquake using a pseudo derivative based on GPS observations
UDC
539.3EDN
FJWLFGDOI:
10.31429/vestnik-23-3-8-13Abstract
The paper proposes a predictive indicator of a "starting" earthquake, based on assessing the variability of time series of GPS observations by calculating a pseudo derivative. The relevance of using this parameter is due to the fact that it characterizes the speed of the lithospheric plate movement. Its decrease (slowing down of movement) is accompanied by the accumulation of elastic deformations, which are subsequently released in the form of a seismic event. The proposed algorithm for calculating the pseudo derivative is characterized by computational simplicity and ease of implementation. The effectiveness of the method has been demonstrated using a model example, as well as based on real GPS observation data obtained from the satellite geodynamic station "Gelendzhik", located in the coastal zone of the Black Sea coast of the Western Caucasus. Seismic events (15.03.2020, M=4.3), (01.09.2020, M=4.1), and (12.12.2020, M=4.1), recorded in the coastal and shelf zone, were accompanied by a bay like reduction in the pseudo derivative and may have the character of a "trigger" earthquake.
Keywords:
lithosphere movement, 'start' earthquake, variability of GPS time series, pseudo-derivative, seismic activityFunding information
The publication was prepared within the framework of the implementation of the state assignment of the Southern Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences for 2026, project state registration number 125011200152-6.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Бабешко В.А., Калинчук В.В., Шестопалов В.Л., Евдокимова О.В., Лозовой В.В., Телятников И.С., Зарецкая М.В., Евдокимов В.С., Шестопалов П.В., Плужник А.В.
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